Rapture #205: Permissionless Highlights and Market Commentary

Rapture #205: Permissionless Highlights and Market Commentary

I took a week off from writing to attend the Permissionless conference and EDC. While I won't comment on the hottest new trends in electronic music, I will discuss some of the most salient announcements stemming from Permissionless, which mostly catered to the established projects in crypto, before I get into my usual market commentary.

Permissionless highlights

One of the most interesting announcements to come out of Permissionless was Fireblocks' new web 3 engine. This new enterprise-grade platform enables developers to build out the next generation of NFT, GameFi, and DeFi products all within Fireblocks.

Specifically, Fireblocks now offers a DeFi suite that allows developers to build new services fir end-users to generate yield utilizing Fireblocks' APIs, an NFT suite for developers to build front-ends that enable the minting, storing, and transferring of NFTs, and a GameFi suite to help developers manage gaming assets across the top blockchains.

Major crypto companies from Animoca Brands to Utopia to Moonpay are already signed up as clients for this new product launch. Clearly, Fireblocks with this move displayed that their ambitions go well beyond being custodial technology for asset management.

The other major announcement I found compelling was Nansen's acquisition of multi-chain portfolio tracker Ape Board. While Nansen is already one of the leading data companies when it comes to address tracking, this move displays there interest in building out robust portfolio insight tools across for all tokens.

Better portfolio tracking tools are desperately needed, as tracking one's positions across both NFTs and DeFi is incredibly ineffective when just utilizing MetaMask.

Market commentary

While we have broke $30,000 multiple times in these past two weeks and are currently hovering right below the mark, I still do not have goblin town confirmation. Note I have been bearish and am still bearish (still not allocated away from my roughly 95% cash position), but we need a sustained drop below the $30,000 mark rather than a consolidation/distribution period for my base case of goblin town to play out. If we do enter a sustained goblin town period, we will likely test the previous peak of the last bull market around $20,000.

While my opinions can always change, my target for re-allocation based on my current hypothesis is around $17,000. I arrived at this number from looking at the peak to trough drawdowns in previous bear markets and applying a rough average of those percentage falls to our $69,000 bull market high.

That being said, the bull market for BTC (from a low of approximately $3,300 to a high of $69,000) was only about a 21x, which is much lower than previous bull markets. Consequently, this bear market could be far lass severe.

Of course, crypto has never been in this terrible of a macro environment. If the market's reaction to SNAP's earning was any indication, more pain for risk-on assets is likely ahead.


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