I took a week off from writing to attend the Permissionless conference and EDC. While I won't comment on the hottest new trends in electronic music, I will discuss some of the most salient announcements stemming from Permissionless, which mostly catered to the established projects in crypto, before I get into my usual market commentary.
One of the most interesting announcements to come out of Permissionless was Fireblocks' new web 3 engine. This new enterprise-grade platform enables developers to build out the next generation of NFT, GameFi, and DeFi products all within Fireblocks.
Specifically, Fireblocks now offers a DeFi suite that allows developers to build new services fir end-users to generate yield utilizing Fireblocks' APIs, an NFT suite for developers to build front-ends that enable the minting, storing, and transferring of NFTs, and a GameFi suite to help developers manage gaming assets across the top blockchains.
Major crypto companies from Animoca Brands to Utopia to Moonpay are already signed up as clients for this new product launch. Clearly, Fireblocks with this move displayed that their ambitions go well beyond being custodial technology for asset management.
The other major announcement I found compelling was Nansen's acquisition of multi-chain portfolio tracker Ape Board. While Nansen is already one of the leading data companies when it comes to address tracking, this move displays there interest in building out robust portfolio insight tools across for all tokens.
Better portfolio tracking tools are desperately needed, as tracking one's positions across both NFTs and DeFi is incredibly ineffective when just utilizing MetaMask.
While we have broke $30,000 multiple times in these past two weeks and are currently hovering right below the mark, I still do not have goblin town confirmation. Note I have been bearish and am still bearish (still not allocated away from my roughly 95% cash position), but we need a sustained drop below the $30,000 mark rather than a consolidation/distribution period for my base case of goblin town to play out. If we do enter a sustained goblin town period, we will likely test the previous peak of the last bull market around $20,000.
While my opinions can always change, my target for re-allocation based on my current hypothesis is around $17,000. I arrived at this number from looking at the peak to trough drawdowns in previous bear markets and applying a rough average of those percentage falls to our $69,000 bull market high.
That being said, the bull market for BTC (from a low of approximately $3,300 to a high of $69,000) was only about a 21x, which is much lower than previous bull markets. Consequently, this bear market could be far lass severe.
Of course, crypto has never been in this terrible of a macro environment. If the market's reaction to SNAP's earning was any indication, more pain for risk-on assets is likely ahead.
The Content on this email is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained on this site constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Rapture Associates or Mattison Asher or any third party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
All Content on this site is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the Site constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the Site constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the Site before making any decisions based on such information or other Content. In exchange for using the Site, you agree not to hold Rapture Associates, Mattison Asher, and its affiliates or any third party service provider liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on information or other Content made available to you through the Site.